Door Industry Journal - Winter 2017

Also online at: www.dijonline.co.uk 24 THE door industry journal winter 2017 industry news WILL 2018 OPEN OR CLOSE MORE DOORS FOR THE UK ECONOMY Mark McEvoy, Commercial Director at Garage Door Systems debates the prospects…. As 2017 draws to a end, and we look towards 2018, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the short, medium and long-term outlook for the UK economy. As the Brexit negotiations stumble along at what feels like a glacial pace there are also many external influences that may also have a bearing on these shores. In recent weeks the current Trump administration is beginning to have an impact on the economy in Northern Ireland with hundreds of job losses forecast in the aerospace industry as Trump brings “jobs back home” to America. Many Economists are now saying Britain is locked into a low growth trajectory that will see GDP growth dip next year while the eurozone shrugs off Brexit uncertainty to stretch ahead. The British Chamber of Commerce recently updated we are beginning to see a real squeeze on UK household budgets and the failure of exporters to capitalise on the low pound means the UK is “treading water”. The hoped-for rebalancing of the UK economy towards investment and export is unlikely to materialise in the medium term. The rising upfront cost of doing business in the UK, the uncertainty around Brexit, and the constraints created by skills gaps outweigh any benefit arising from the recent depreciation of sterling. It is increasingly apparent that the post-EU referendum slide in the value of sterling has done more harm than good. Inflation is being driven by the sizable increases in the cost of imported raw materials over the past year, and is expected to remain a drag on consumer spending over the near term, with pay growth not expected to outpace price growth until 2019. The past month has seen further surges in inflation, while the data on economic growth has been relatively subdued. The main drag on the UK economy at present is consumer spending, with retail sales volumes recording the slowest growth since 2013. With the world economy growing quite healthily, and our key export markets in Europe strengthening, we should expect UK business investment to be powering ahead. Instead, capital spending by UK businesses declined last year and has been pretty flat through the first half of this year. These drags on the UK economy are Brexit-related, with the rise in inflation heavily driven by the decline in the value of the pound since the EU referendum. The weakness of domestic investment and consumer spending is preventing the UK benefiting from a general upswing in the global economy and an improvement in growth in the rest of the EU. As a result, there is a significant risk that the UK will find itself at the bottom of the growth league in 2017, after being No1 or No2 in the previous four years – 2013 to 2016. The most positive indicators continue to be found in the UK labour market, with employment continuing to rise and unemployment registering further falls. But there must be a question mark over how long the labour market will continue to be so resilient when economic growth remains relatively weak. We are certainly in for an interesting year ahead. Let’s hope the Euro negotiations find an acceptable middle ground sooner rather than later that provides an opportunity for the economy to rebalance without too much turbulence and the restoration of consumer confidence. Mark McEvoy Garage Door Systems PROMOTE YOUR BUSINESS FOR JUST £35! Low Cost and Free Publicity - You can benefit from some help in promoting your business, its products and services on the Door Industry Journal Blog at an incredibly low price (typically £35) towards our page creation and layout costs. But if you advertise with us, you will receive the publicity absolutely free of charge (see below). Extra benefits for our advertisers - If you take display advertising or product and literature features in our printed and online publications, you will also qualify for regular free postings on the Door Industry Journal Blog while you continue to advertise with us. Email your articles to: mail@doorindustryjournal.co.uk Visit our Blog to see the kind of publicity we provide: blog.doorindustryjournal.co.uk BLOGGING